The models
Numerical weather models are the raw computation — government supercomputers (and now one AI) simulating the atmosphere from scratch several times a day. Every weather app on Earth is built on these. Sunny reads them directly, unaveraged, and the chart shows each one as its own line.
GFS
NOAA · United StatesThe Global Forecast System — the workhorse American global model, run four times a day and published fully open, which is why half the weather apps on Earth are built on it.
Why it's hereThe reference point. When another model disagrees with GFS, that gap is usually the day's real story.
ECMWF
ECMWF · 35 European statesThe Integrated Forecasting System from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — the model that tops medium-range verification scores more often than any other.
Why it's hereWidely regarded as the world's most accurate global model. A consensus without it would be negligent.
ICON
DWD · GermanyGermany's ICON (icosahedral nonhydrostatic) model — a different grid geometry and different physics choices from the American and European mainlines.
Why it's hereGenuinely independent engineering. Its disagreements with GFS and ECMWF are informative precisely because it isn't derived from either.
HRRR
NOAA · United StatesThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh — a 3 km storm-scale model covering the continental US, re-run every hour with fresh radar folded in.
Why it's hereFor the next few hours over the US, nothing global competes. It self-gates: outside its domain it simply doesn't vote.
UK Met Office
Met Office · United KingdomThe Met Office's Unified Model — one codebase spanning global forecasting to UK regional detail, developed continuously since the 1990s.
Why it's hereA top-tier center with its own lineage. Adds an independent voice that frequently splits the difference between the American and European calls.
GEM
Environment CanadaThe Global Environmental Multiscale model — Canada's own global system, with particular strength in the patterns that matter at northern latitudes.
Why it's hereIndependent physics and an agency with a home-field advantage on cold-season weather, which is where forecasts disagree most.
Météo-France
Météo-FranceFrance's ARPEGE global model and its high-resolution AROME companion over Europe, run by one of the oldest national weather services in the world.
Why it's hereAnother fully independent center — and over western Europe, AROME's fine grid picks up detail the global models smooth away.
JMA
JMA · JapanThe Japan Meteorological Agency's global model, from the agency that pioneered much of modern typhoon forecasting.
Why it's hereAn independent Pacific-facing perspective. On systems crossing the Pacific toward North America, JMA often leads the pack.
CMA
CMA · ChinaThe China Meteorological Administration's global model — a fully independent forecast center: its own physics, its own data assimilation, not a re-blend of anything else in this list.
Why it's hereHonesty about the range of official world models means not curating away the ones that stray. CMA verifies below the majors, and on its stray days the spread widens — the accuracy scorecard exists to show exactly that, in public.
ECMWF AIFS
ECMWF · AIThe Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System — ECMWF's machine-learned model, trained on decades of reanalysis rather than solving physics equations. The first non-physics voter in the row.
Why it's hereIt verifies competitively with the flagship physics models, and it fails differently — its errors are uncorrelated with everyone else's, which is precisely what a consensus wants from a new voice.